{"id":1677,"date":"2026-07-20T16:40:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1677"},"modified":"2026-07-20T16:40:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:40:11","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0-072","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1677","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 072"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a<\/em>\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 071<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

DISSOLVING RANDOMNESS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6d88\u9664\u968f\u673a\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1aIt is also a property of causal circuits that they generate a nonrandom response to a random event at that position in the circuit at which the random event occurred. This is a subtle but crucial point for organizational analyses. If there is an accidental change in value of one of the variables in a circuit, the characteristics of the circuit will even out that fluctuation as it moves around the circuit so that when it finally arrives back at the point of the original accident, the accident has been made orderly. By characteristics of the circuit we mean such things as its threshold of activity, its patterns of plus and minus relationships, how long it takes a circular sequence to complete itself, and so on. These characteristics of the circuit act as constraints on any random fluctuation and tend to even out what occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ef4\u514b\u7684\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bba\u8ff0\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u4e8e\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u8bba\u4e0e\u53cd\u9988\u56de\u8def\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u89e3\u91ca\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u52a8\u6001\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\u7684\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7ef4\u6301\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u65e5\u5e38\u8fd0\u8425\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\u6216\u7a81\u53d1\u5f02\u5e38\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7ef4\u514b\u6240\u8ff0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\uff0c\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u8c03\u8282\u673a\u5236\u3002\u5f53\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\u6216\u751f\u4ea7\u7ebf\u4e0a\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u53d1\u751f\u201c\u610f\u5916\u6539\u53d8\u201d\uff08\u5982\u5173\u952e\u539f\u6750\u6599\u7a81\u7136\u65ad\u4f9b\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6210\u719f\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u4f53\u7cfb\uff08\u56de\u8def\u7279\u6027\uff09\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b2\u51fb\u65e0\u9650\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u7f13\u51b2\u3001\u8de8\u90e8\u95e8\u534f\u540c\u7b49\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u6d88\u5316\u8fd9\u80a1\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u97e7\u6027\u5e76\u975e\u6e90\u4e8e\u201c\u7edd\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\u610f\u5916\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u6e90\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u201c\u610f\u5916\u201d\u901a\u8fc7\u5185\u90e8\u56de\u8def\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u201c\u6709\u5e8f\u201d\u3002\u5f53\u5371\u673a\u5e73\u606f\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u6d41\u7a0b\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ed\u73af\u65f6\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u62b5\u6297\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u4ece\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7ef4\u514b\u00b7\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u201d\u5bf9\u201c\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u3002\u7ef4\u514b\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u201c\u6d3b\u52a8\u9608\u503c\u201d\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b66\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5e94\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5bb9\u9519\u5ea6\u4e0e\u654f\u611f\u671f\uff1b\u201c\u6b63\u8d1f\u5173\u7cfb\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u5bf9\u5e94\u90e8\u95e8\u95f4\u7684\u5236\u8861\u4e0e\u4e92\u8865\u673a\u5236\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9500\u552e\u6269\u5f20\u53d7\u5230\u8d22\u52a1\u98ce\u63a7\u7684\u8d1f\u5411\u7ea6\u675f\uff09\uff1b\u201c\u5faa\u73af\u5e8f\u5217\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u201d\u5219\u5bf9\u5e94\u7ec4\u7ec7\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0e\u6267\u884c\u7684\u5468\u671f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u51cf\u5c11\u6b67\u4e49\u7684\u673a\u5668\u201d\u3002\u4e2a\u522b\u5458\u5de5\u7684\u79bb\u804c\u3001\u5076\u7136\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u8bef\u89e3\u6216\u5236\u5ea6\u6267\u884c\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u79d1\u5c42\u5236\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u548c\u5171\u540c\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7684\u5c42\u5c42\u8fc7\u6ee4\u548c\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6d41\u5411\u7ec8\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u201c\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u201d\u548c\u201c\u89c4\u8303\u5316\u201d\uff0c\u91cd\u56de\u65e2\u5b9a\u8f68\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u5960\u57fa\u4eba\uff0c\u7ef4\u514b\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\u201d\u540c\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u56fe\u5f0f\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5927\u8111\u6781\u5ea6\u6392\u65a5\u968f\u673a\u6027\u548c\u65e0\u5e8f\u611f\u3002\u5f53\u7ec4\u7ec7\u73af\u5883\u51fa\u73b0\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u542b\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u6742\u97f3\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u548c\u7fa4\u4f53\u4f1a\u542f\u52a8\u610f\u4e49\u5efa\u6784\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5458\u5de5\u4f1a\u5229\u7528\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u73b0\u5b58\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u5171\u540c\u7684\u613f\u666f\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u6846\u67b6\uff08\u5373\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\uff09\uff0c\u53bb\u5bf9\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u5408\u7406\u5316\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u6d41\u4f20\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u5171\u8bc6\uff08\u7ed5\u56de\u8def\u4e00\u5468\uff09\u540e\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u8ba9\u4eba\u6050\u614c\u7684\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u201d\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6d88\u89e3\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7126\u8651\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1aFor example, take the extended causal loop that combines portions B and D of Fig.3.4. Suppose a random impulse leads me to start making comments about everything to everyone (variable 6 goes up for no particular reason). More comments leads to more understanding, less boredom, greater under-standing, and finally fewer comments. Thus, the original random increase in comments, through the events triggered in this causal circuit, eventually makes of this random commenting a nonrandom, orderly response. This outcome occurred because of the patterns of plus and minus relationships in that causal loop, the amount of time it took for the events to cycle through (time is left unspecified in this particular example), and the amount by which a prior variable had to change before it triggered a subsequent variable (as discussed in this example I have assumed that the thresholds are very low\u2014that is, a minor fluctuation is sufficient to trigger the next variable along the circuit).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u4ee5\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u56fe3.4\u4e2dB\u90e8\u5206\u548cD\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\u4e3a\u4f8b\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u67d0\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u5c31\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u8a00\u8bc4\u8bba\uff08\u53d8\u91cf6\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u65e0\u804a\u611f\u3001\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u53d1\u8a00\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u7531\u8bc4\u8bba\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u968f\u673a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8be5\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\u4e2d\u6240\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u968f\u673a\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u884c\u4e3a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3001\u6709\u5e8f\u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u3002\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\u4e2d\u6b63\u8d1f\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5faa\u73af\u4e00\u5468\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u5728\u672c\u4f8b\u4e2d\u65f6\u95f4\u672a\u505a\u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u660e\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u524d\u7f6e\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u89e6\u53d1\u540e\u7f6e\u53d8\u91cf\u524d\u6240\u5fc5\u987b\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u91cf\uff08\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u672c\u4f8b\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u5047\u8bbe\u5176\u9608\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u2014\u2014\u5373\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u89e6\u53d1\u56de\u8def\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u672c\u662f\u7ef4\u514b\u5bf9\u524d\u6587\u201c\u6d88\u9664\u968f\u673a\u6027\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u6848\u4f8b\u6f14\u793a\u3002\u4ed6\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u89c2\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u56de\u8def\uff08\u8bc4\u8bba\u6570\u91cf\u4e0e\u4eba\u9645\u7406\u89e3\uff09\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u529b\u91cf\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u5076\u7136\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u9a6f\u5316\u4e3a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u3001\u6709\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b9e\u52a1\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u76f4\u63a5\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u6d41\u7a0b\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u7ea0\u504f\u4e0e\u5fae\u89c2\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8be5\u673a\u5236\u201c\u5982\u4f55\u7ba1\u7406\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u5176\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u6df7\u4e71\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7ef4\u514b\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u201c\u89e6\u53d1\u9608\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u9ad8\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u4e0e\u54cd\u5e94\u673a\u5236\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6d41\u7a0b\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7b49\u5f85\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u884c\u653f\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u5176\u5e95\u5c42\u5458\u5de5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u5173\u7cfb\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u6108\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u67d0\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u7531\u4e8e\u79c1\u4eba\u60c5\u7eea\u7a81\u7136\u5f00\u59cb\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u6307\u624b\u753b\u811a\u201d\uff08\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\uff0c\u56e2\u961f\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\uff08\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6c9f\u901a\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u538b\u529b\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff09\u4f1a\u81ea\u53d1\u542f\u52a8\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u4e0a\u7ea7\u4ecb\u5165\uff0c\u8be5\u6210\u5458\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5c31\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u56de\u5f52\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f9d\u9760\u56de\u8def\u81ea\u8eab\u7279\u6027\uff08\u6b63\u8d1f\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u4f4e\u9608\u503c\uff09\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u7ea0\u504f\uff0c\u6781\u5927\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u76d1\u7763\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u7ef4\u514b\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5fae\u89c2\u884c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u751f\u6210\u903b\u8f91\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6001\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u56fe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u91cd\u590d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u95ed\u73af\u3002\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u6761\u4e3a\u201c\u8bc4\u8bba\u53d1\u8a00\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7406\u89e3\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u53d1\u8a00\u8bc4\u8bba\u51cf\u5c11\u201d\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u5236\u8861\u673a\u5236\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\uff0c\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u804c\u80fd\u8bbe\u5b9a\uff08\u5982\u7814\u53d1\u63d0\u51fa\u65b0\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u8d22\u52a1\u8fdb\u884c\u6210\u672c\u9650\u5236\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u8d1f\u76f8\u6d88\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u7ec4\u7ec7\u65e2\u6709\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u800c\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u7ef4\u514b\u63d0\u5230\u201c\u5faa\u73af\u4e00\u5468\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u201d\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u9012\u548c\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u5468\u671f\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7834\u574f\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5bf9\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5468\u671f\u8fc7\u957f\uff0c\u968f\u673a\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u56de\u8def\u4e2d\u7d2f\u79ef\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u6076\u6027\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\uff08\u504f\u5dee\u653e\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5931\u63a7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.  \u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u8bdd\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8be0\u91ca\u4e86\u7ef4\u514b\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u547d\u9898\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u600e\u4e48\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u60f3\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6211\u770b\u5230\u6211\u8bf4\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u201d\u7ef4\u514b\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u90a3\u4e2a\u6700\u521d\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u589e\u52a0\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u201c\u5148\u6709\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u540e\u6709\u884c\u4e3a\u201d\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u6e90\u4e8e\u968f\u673a\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\u3001\u5076\u7136\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u5efa\u6784\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u884c\u52a8\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u540e\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u968f\u673a\u8bf4\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bdd\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u73af\u5883\u7684\u53cd\u9988\uff08Selection\uff0c\u5982\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u3001\u65e0\u804a\u611f\u7684\u964d\u4f4e\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53cd\u9988\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff08Retention\uff0c\u4f60\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u73af\u5883\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff09\u3002\u539f\u672c\u90a3\u4e2a\u201c\u968f\u673a\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u7ed5\u56de\u8def\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u88ab\u4f60\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u5408\u7406\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u2014\u2014\u201c\u6211\u591a\u8bf4\u8bdd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u589e\u8fdb\u56e2\u961f\u7406\u89e3\u201d\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u968f\u673a\u884c\u4e3a\u88ab\u8ba4\u77e5\u56fa\u5316\u4e3a\u4e86\u6709\u76ee\u7684\u3001\u6709\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u89c4\u8303\u54cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u9884\u5148\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6d41\u52a8\u4e2d\u81ea\u53d1\u6d8c\u73b0\u3002\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u53bb\u6d88\u706d\u5458\u5de5\u548c\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u968f\u673a\u51b2\u52a8\uff08\u8fd9\u65e2\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u65e0\u5fc5\u8981\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53bb\u6784\u5efa\u5177\u5907\u5408\u7406\u201c\u6b63\u8d1f\u5173\u7cfb\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u53cd\u9988\u5468\u671f\u201d\u548c\u201c\u654f\u611f\u9608\u503c\u201d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\uff0c\u8ba9\u968f\u673a\u6027\u5728\u6d41\u52a8\u4e2d\u81ea\u7136\u878d\u89e3\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SMALL BEGINNINGS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u8d77\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1aDeviation-amplifying loops can be either vicious or virtuous circles, and it is important that this broader implication be understood. Any chance event such as a small crack in a rock that gathers water or a farmer who builds his home on a homogeneous agricultural plain can become amplified into a tree that grows out of a rock or people congregating around the original farmer to form a city. The process, not the initial crack or location, generated the complex outcome (Maruyama 1963).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u504f\u5dee\u653e\u5927\u56de\u8def\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u542b\u4e49\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5076\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u5ca9\u77f3\u4e0a\u79ef\u6c34\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u5fae\u5c0f\u88c2\u7f1d\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u519c\u592b\u5728\u5e7f\u88a4\u65e0\u57a0\u7684\u5e73\u539f\u4e0a\u76d6\u8d77\u7684\u4e00\u5ea7\u623f\u5c4b\u2014\u2014\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4e0d\u65ad\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u4ece\u5ca9\u77f3\u4e2d\u7834\u571f\u800c\u51fa\u7684\u53c2\u5929\u5927\u6811\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u7eb7\u7eb7\u5728\u6700\u521d\u7684\u519c\u592b\u5468\u56f4\u805a\u96c6\u800c\u51dd\u805a\u6210\u4e00\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u3002\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u201c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\u800c\u975e\u6700\u521d\u7684\u201c\u88c2\u7f1d\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u201d\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u672c\u7ef4\u514b\u518d\u6b21\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u5b66\u8005\u4e38\u5c71\u5b59\u90ce\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8bba\u8bc1\u4e00\u4e2a\u98a0\u8986\u4f20\u7edf\u56e0\u679c\u89c2\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b66\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7ed3\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u5e76\u975e\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u3001\u6709\u9884\u8c0b\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u968f\u673a\u5076\u7136\u7ecf\u7531\u201c\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\u4e0d\u65ad\u653e\u5927\u800c\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u524d\u4e24\u6bb5\u6587\u672c\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u201c\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\uff08\u6d88\u9664\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff09\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u672c\u6bb5\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5219\u662f\u201c\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\uff08\u653e\u5927\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3001\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u79e9\u5e8f\uff09\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e43\u81f3\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u201c\u4ece\u65e0\u5230\u6709\u201d\u4e0e\u53d8\u8fc1\u903b\u8f91\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u504f\u5dee\u653e\u5927\u56de\u8def\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u673a\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n