{"id":1458,"date":"2026-06-12T14:59:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T06:59:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1458"},"modified":"2026-06-12T14:59:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T06:59:57","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0-037","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1458","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 037"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a<\/em>\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 036<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1aAphorisms are relevant to another taboo topic: speculation. Speculation involves consecutive logical thought that starts with premises or data and proceeds, through inferences, to arrive at conclusions or judgments. What sets speculation apart from reasoning is the fact that there is some uncertainty in the premises or some incompleteness in the data and, therefore, there is more tentativeness to the conclusions reached. But the important points to remember about speculation are that it is constrained activity, it unfolds in an orderly manner, and when the raw materials on which it operates are insufficient, premises or data are invented so that the process can continue and possibly arrive at a provocative conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u7bb4\u8a00\u8fd8\u5173\u8054\u7740\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5e38\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u7981\u5fcc\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\uff1a\uff08\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\uff09\u63a8\u6d4b\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8fde\u7eed\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u6d3b\u52a8\uff1a\u5b83\u4ece\u67d0\u4e9b\u524d\u63d0\u6216\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u7ecf\u7531\u63a8\u8bba\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u62b5\u8fbe\u7ed3\u8bba\u6216\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u63a8\u6d4b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u4e25\u683c\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u524d\u63d0\u672c\u8eab\u5b58\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e5f\u5e26\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u6682\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u5173\u4e8e\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u4e4b\u5904\u9700\u8981\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff1a\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6beb\u65e0\u9650\u5236\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u53d7\u5230\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff1b\u5b83\u6309\u7167\u67d0\u79cd\u6709\u5e8f\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c55\u5f00\uff1b\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u5f53\u5b83\u6240\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6750\u6599\u4e0d\u8db3\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u201c\u53d1\u660e\u201d\u65b0\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u6216\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4f7f\u63a8\u6f14\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u5411\u67d0\u79cd\u5bcc\u6709\u6311\u8845\u6027\u6216\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udca1\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u56f4\u7ed5\u201cspeculation\uff08\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\uff09\u201d\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5728\u8bf4\u660e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\u88ab\u957f\u671f\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u751f\u6210\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u4fe1\u606f\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3001\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u8fdb\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Weick\u6307\u51fa\uff0cspeculation\u5e76\u975e\u968f\u610f\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5177\u6709\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u63a8\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5b83\u4ece\u6709\u9650\u524d\u63d0\u6216\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u6f14\u9010\u6b65\u5f62\u6210\u7ed3\u8bba\u6216\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4e0e\u4e25\u683c\u6f14\u7ece\u63a8\u7406\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u6784\u9020\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e5f\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u4e0e\u6682\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u4f9d\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u53d7\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u7406\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u6309\u7167\u4e00\u5b9a\u903b\u8f91\u987a\u5e8f\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u65e0\u5e8f\u60f3\u8c61\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0cWeick\u5f3a\u8c03\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u5728\u77e5\u8bc6\u751f\u4ea7\u4e2d\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u590d\u6742\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a8\u52a8\u601d\u8003\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u201c\u8865\u8db3\u524d\u63d0\u201d\u751a\u81f3\u6682\u65f6\u6027\u5730\u6784\u9020\u5047\u8bbe\u6027\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u4f7f\u63a8\u7406\u94fe\u6761\u5f97\u4ee5\u5ef6\u7eed\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u5e76\u975e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u73b0\u5b9e\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u751f\u6210\u5177\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7406\u8bba\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u6982\u62ec\u4e3a\uff1a\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u65e2\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u6f14\u7ece\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u968f\u610f\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u7ea6\u675f\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u521b\u9020\u6027\u63a8\u6f14\uff0c\u4f7f\u601d\u60f3\u5f97\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5907\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u5177\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u62d3\u5c55\u5185\u5bb9\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c06speculation\u7406\u89e3\u6210\uff08\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\uff09\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f \u5176\u5b83\uff1f<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728Weick \u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\uff0cspeculation\u5e76\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u88ab\u7b80\u5355\u7ffb\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8c\u8005\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u54f2\u5b66\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. \u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u201d\uff08hypothesis\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u5c5e\u4e8e\u8f83\u6210\u719f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5b83\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u660e\u786e\u3001\u53ef\u68c0\u9a8c\u3001\u53ef\u8bc1\u4f2a\u7684\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u591f\u8fdb\u5165\u53d8\u91cf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u6570\u636e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u201c\u5458\u5de5\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u4f1a\u63d0\u5347\u521b\u65b0\u7ee9\u6548\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u903b\u8f91\u8fb9\u754c\u660e\u786e\u3001\u5177\u6709\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5bfc\u5411\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u201d\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u79cd\u6b63\u5f0f\u7814\u7a76\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e2d\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. \u800c Weick \u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684 speculation\uff0c\u5219\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u201c\u601d\u8fa8\u201d\u6216\u201c\u63a8\u6d4b\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4fe1\u606f\u5c1a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u3001\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u524d\u63d0\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u4f9d\u7136\u901a\u8fc7\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u6f14\u3001\u6982\u5ff5\u8054\u60f3\u4e0e\u7406\u8bba\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\uff0c\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7406\u89e3\u3002\uff08\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\uff09\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u610f\u5e7b\u60f3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a Weick \u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u53d7\u5230\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u63a8\u6f14\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ecd\u7136\u9075\u5faa\u903b\u8f91\u3001\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e0e\u95ee\u9898\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u7ea6\u675f\u3002\u5b83\u66f4\u50cf\u7406\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdb\u5165\u4e25\u683c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u547d\u9898\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u77e5\u8bc6\u751f\u6210\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6765\u770b\uff0cspeculation \u5f80\u5f80\u5148\u4e8e hypothesis\u3002\u5b83\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u6210\u201d\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u800c hypothesis \u66f4\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u7406\u8bba\u68c0\u9a8c\u201d\u9636\u6bb5\u3002Weick \u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u6062\u590d\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u610f\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u6709\u7ea6\u675f\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u60f3\u8c61\u529b\u201d\u3002\u5728\u590d\u6742\u7ec4\u7ec7\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e0e AI \u65f6\u4ee3\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u6cd5\u7b49\u5f85\u5b8c\u6574\u8bc1\u636e\u51fa\u73b0\u540e\u518d\u5f00\u59cb\u601d\u8003\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u53ea\u5141\u8bb8\u6210\u719f\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8bb8\u591a\u771f\u6b63\u5177\u6709\u7a81\u7834\u6027\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c06 speculation \u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u63a8\u6d4b\u201d\uff0c\u6bd4\u7b80\u5355\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u201d\u66f4\u80fd\u4fdd\u7559 Weick \u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e0e\u63a2\u7d22\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      \u6ce8\uff1a\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u5c06speculation\u8bd1\u4e3a\u201c\u731c\u60f3\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u539f\u6587\uff1aSpeculation brings feelings and intuitions into conscious awareness, a process that leads the speculator more deeply into the phenomenon about which he is speculating. Speculation exemplifies ten o’clock research. Accuracy is not a major constraint because the process of reasoning doesn’t grind to a halt in the absence of information. It continues. This means that speculation is quite as credible a way to conduct inquiry as are many of the other strategies which have received a better press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u53c2\u8003\u5168\u6587\uff1a\u63a8\u6d4b\u4f1a\u5c06\u60c5\u611f\u4e0e\u76f4\u89c9\u5e26\u5165\u610f\u8bc6\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4f1a\u4f7f\u63a8\u6d4b\u8005\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u8fdb\u5165\u4ed6\u6240\u601d\u8003\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u63a8\u6d4b\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u2018\u5341\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u2019\u3002\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u6027\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7ea6\u675f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u7f3a\u5931\u800c\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u63a8\u6d4b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f4e\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u58f0\u8a89\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83d\udca1\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\uff1a<\/strong>
      \u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e2d\uff0cWeick\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e3a\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u8fa9\u62a4\u3002\u5176\u4e0a\u6587\u5df2\u7ecf\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6392\u65a5\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u6e90\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u957f\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f20\u7edf\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ea\u6709\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3001\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u624d\u5177\u6709\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u3002\u800c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u73b0\u5b9e\u672c\u8eab\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3001\u52a8\u6001\u6027\u4e0e\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff0c\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e25\u683c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8ffd\u6c42\u5c40\u90e8\u7cbe\u786e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7406\u8bba\u5931\u53bb\u89e3\u91ca\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002
      \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\u771f\u6b63\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u5f20\u529b\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u201c\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u201d\u3001\u201c\u666e\u9002\u6027\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u7b80\u6d01\u6027\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u6700\u5927\u5316\u3002Weick\u8bd5\u56fe\u4e3a\u201c\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u7406\u8bba\u201d\u6062\u590d\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u5c1a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u65f6\u6301\u7eed\u63a8\u52a8\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u6210\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u8fd9\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4eec\u5e76\u975e\u50cf\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9a\u5f8b\u90a3\u6837\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7cbe\u786e\uff0c\u5374\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u89e3\u91ca\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0cWeick\u662f\u5728\u63d0\u9192\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u53ea\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u751f\u6210\u95ee\u9898\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u539f\u6587\uff1aIt’s interesting that many writers have suggested that speculation actually predominates in social science. Consider the following comment by C. H. Cooley:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u90fd\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u6070\u6070\u662f\u63a8\u6d4b\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u8bf7\u770b\u5e93\u5229\u7684\u5982\u4e0b\u8bc4\u8bba\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83d\udca1\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u67e5\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u970d\u987f\u00b7\u5e93\u5229\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e0e\u6559\u80b2\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u201c\u955c\u4e2d\u6211\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u201c\u521d\u7ea7\u7fa4\u4f53\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u4ed6\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\uff0c\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u8c61\u5f81\u4e92\u52a8\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5148\u9a71\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002
      \u5e93\u5229\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u201d\u4e0d\u662f\u5929\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e92\u52a8\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u3002\u201c\u955c\u4e2d\u6211\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u901a\u8fc7\u60f3\u8c61\u4ed6\u4eba\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u81ea\u5df1\u3001\u63a8\u6d4b\u4ed6\u4eba\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5e76\u4ea7\u751f\u76f8\u5e94\u60c5\u611f\uff08\u5982\u9a84\u50b2\u6216\u7f9e\u6127\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5efa\u6784\u81ea\u6211\u610f\u8bc6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u521d\u7ea7\u7fa4\u4f53\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u5bb6\u5ead\u3001\u90bb\u91cc\u4e0e\u7ae5\u5e74\u73a9\u4f34\u7b49\u9762\u5bf9\u9762\u7684\u4eb2\u5bc6\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u9053\u5fb7\u3001\u60c5\u611f\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u3002
      \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e93\u5229\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5316\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5173\u4e8e\u81ea\u6211\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7075\u7684\u6d1e\u89c1\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u5185\u7701\u5f0f\u3001\u6587\u5b66\u5316\u7684\u5199\u4f5c\u98ce\u683c\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u4eba\u6587\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u540e\u4e16\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u539f\u6587\uff1aIt is perhaps not sufficiently understood that 19\/20’s of what men of science write, and what the public takes for science, is not such but an overflow of speculative discussion not necessarily less biased or more grounded than any other matter of the kind. No doubt this has a scientific value in that from the flood of conjecture fruitful hypotheses may emerge, but in the meantime all men should know that it is conjecture (1931, pp. 148-49).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u6216\u8bb8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6240\u5199\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u5341\u4e5d\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5341\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u516c\u4f17\u6240\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u2019\u79d1\u5b66\u2019\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u5927\u91cf\u63a8\u6d4b\u6027\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u5916\u6ea2\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ba8\u8bba\u672a\u5fc5\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u540c\u7c7b\u4e8b\u52a1\u66f4\u5c11\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a8\u6d4b\u4ecd\u7136\u5177\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u731c\u60f3\u7684\u6d2a\u6d41\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bcc\u6709\u6210\u679c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u6d6e\u73b0\u3002\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u5f53\u660e\u767d\uff1a\u5b83\u7ec8\u7a76\u53ea\u662f\u731c\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83d\udca1\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. \u8fd9\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\u4e0eWeick\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u201d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u7684\u547c\u5e94\u3002Weick\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5f15\u7528\u5e93\u5229\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u5341\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u4e89\u53d6\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u53d7\u5230\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f20\u7edf\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u6d4b\u91cf\u3001\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bb9\u6613\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u89c9\uff1a\u4eff\u4f5b\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5b8c\u5168\u5ba2\u89c2\u3001\u5145\u5206\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u5e93\u5229\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u63a8\u6d4b\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u89e3\u91ca\u6027\u5ef6\u4f38\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Weick\u63d0\u51fa\u201c\u5341\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u201d\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u7406\u8bba\u5efa\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u5f20\u529b\uff1a\u7406\u8bba\u8d8a\u5177\u6709\u666e\u9002\u6027\u4e0e\u7b80\u6d01\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u727a\u7272\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u3002\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u9ad8\u5ea6\u52a8\u6001\u3001\u60c5\u5883\u5316\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u53ea\u63a5\u53d7\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u9a8c\u8bc1\u201d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u521b\u65b0\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u505c\u6ede\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u91cd\u8981\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u89e3\u91ca\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. \u4f46Weick\u4e5f\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u6301\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u91cd\u8981\u514b\u5236\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u601d\u8fa8\u6027\u63a8\u6d4b\u795e\u5723\u5316\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u5371\u9669\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u63a8\u6d4b\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5fd8\u8bb0\u201c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u7406\u8bba\u88ab\u5305\u88c5\u6210\u65e0\u6bd4\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u771f\u7406\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u5c31\u5bb9\u6613\u9677\u5165\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5316\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u6982\u5ff5\u5316\u751a\u81f3\u795e\u8bdd\u5316\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 036 \u539f\u6587\uff1aAphorisms are relevant to anot … <\/p>\n

        \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201c\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 037\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1458"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1458"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1458\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1459,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1458\/revisions\/1459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}