{"id":1430,"date":"2026-06-01T16:34:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T08:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1430"},"modified":"2026-06-01T16:34:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T08:34:46","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0-033","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1430","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 033"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzI5MjIxMzQxMA==&amp;mid=2247493125&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=dbaa497092110ea75d99b25122348ec7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 032<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aIf one intentionally sets out to do two o&#8217;clock research, then Occam&#8217;s Razor (Luchins and Luchins 1965) is sacrificed in favor of intentional overdetermination. The concept of overdetermination states that there are usually more factors that act to produce a single behavior than are really necessary to have it occur. The concept was first described by Freud in 1896 when he tried to account for symptoms of hysteria. Used in that context the idea meant essentially that a single bit of behavior served simultaneously to reduce tensions generated by several motives. Occam&#8217;s Razor, a venerated concept in natural sciences, contains a tacit plea for economy in psychological explanations. Fewer and simpler concepts are to be preferred to more and more complicated concepts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6709\u610f\u5730\u53bb\u505a\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u539f\u5219\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u727a\u7272\uff0c\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e3a\u4e4b\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5b58\u5728\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u6240\u9700\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u4ee5\u4ea7\u751f\u67d0\u4e00\u5355\u4e00\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u6700\u65e9\u7531\u5f17\u6d1b\u4f0a\u5fb7\u57281896\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4ed6\u8bd5\u56fe\u89e3\u91ca\u7654\u75c7\u7684\u75c7\u72b6\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff1a\u67d0\u4e00\u5355\u4e00\u884c\u4e3a\u7247\u6bb5\u80fd\u591f\u540c\u65f6\u7f13\u89e3\u7531\u591a\u79cd\u52a8\u673a\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u3002\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u2014\u2014\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5907\u53d7\u5c0a\u5d07\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u2014\u2014\u5185\u542b\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u89e3\u91ca\u4e4b\u7b80\u6d01\u6027\u7684\u9690\u6027\u8bc9\u6c42\u3002\u66f4\u5c11\u3001\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5e94\u5f53\u88ab\u4f18\u5148\u4e8e\u66f4\u591a\u3001\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0cWeick\u9996\u5148\u62ff\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u5f00\u5200\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u653e\u5f03\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u5907\u53d7\u5c0a\u5d07\u7684\u6700\u7b80\u539f\u5219\u3002\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u539f\u5219\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e14\u4e16\u7eaa\u903b\u8f91\u5b66\u5bb6\u5965\u5361\u59c6\uff0c\u8be5\u539f\u5219\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\u4e3b\u5f20\u662f\u201c\u5982\u65e0\u5fc5\u8981\uff0c\u52ff\u589e\u5b9e\u4f53\u201d\u3002\u5176\u903b\u8f91\u662f\uff1a\u73b0\u8c61Y \u2192 \u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u7b80\u6d01\u7684\u89e3\u91caX \u2192 \u6392\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u6027 \u2192 \u83b7\u5f97\u6e05\u6670\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u6587\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u662f\u666e\u904d\u6027+\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u517c\u987e\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u3002\u600e\u4e48\u529e\uff1f\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\uff0c\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u5f17\u6d1b\u4f0a\u5fb7\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\uff1a\u73b0\u8c61Y \u2192 \u627f\u8ba4X\u2081+X\u2082+X\u2083+&#8230;\u5171\u540c\u4f5c\u7528 \u2192 \u4fdd\u7559\u591a\u91cd\u56e0\u679c \u2192 \u83b7\u5f97\u590d\u6742\u4f46\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u56fe\u666f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5bf9\u73b0\u5b9e\u590d\u6742\u6027\u7684\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0cWeick\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u540c\u6837\u5177\u6709\u201d\u7654\u75c7\u5f0f\u201d\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u770b\u4f3c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u6ee1\u8db3\uff1a\u6210\u672c\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u6743\u529b\u91cd\u7ec4\u3001\u6587\u5316\u53d8\u9769\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u5c55\u793a\u7b49\u591a\u91cd\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u9700\u8981\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u7528\u5355\u4e00\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5982\u6210\u672c\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u5f0f\u7684\u7b80\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u591a\u4e49\u6027\u7684\u4e0d\u5c0a\u91cd\u3002\u662f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7684\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weick\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c0f\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c06\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u5206\u6790\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4f20\u7edf\u5e76\u7f6e\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u800c\u975e\u7269\u7406\u8fd0\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u4f60\u8fd8\u8ba4\u4e3a&#8221;\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u624d\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u89e3\u91ca&#8221;\u5417\uff1fWeick\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b80\u5355\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aThe concept of overdetermination says that a given bit of behavior should be regarded and analyzed as expressing a maximum number of psychological factors. If a maximum number of psychological determinants are expressed in a minimum amount of behavior, then invoking a minimal explanation will exclude the majority of determinants that in fact are influencing the behavior.Thus an explanation that satisfies Occam&#8217;s Razor should be disturbing, not satisfying. That feeling of disturbance coupled with a search for overdetermined explanations is more likely to occur if people self-consciously try to do two o&#8217;clock inquiry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u67d0\u4e00\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e3a\u7247\u6bb5\u5e94\u5f53\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e76\u5206\u6790\u4e3a\u8868\u8fbe\u4e86\u6700\u591a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6700\u591a\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u6700\u5c11\u91cf\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5f97\u4ee5\u8868\u8fbe\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8bc9\u8bf8\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u7b80\u89e3\u91ca\u5c31\u4f1a\u6392\u9664\u6389\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u6b63\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u8be5\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b26\u5408\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5e94\u5f53\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u79cd\u4e0d\u5b89\u611f\uff0c\u52a0\u4e4b\u5bf9\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u63a2\u7a76\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>Weick\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u5bf9\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\uff1a\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u4e0d\u662f\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u5426\u7b80\u6d01\u4f18\u96c5\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201d\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u5426\u8ba9\u4f60\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u7c97\u66b4\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u662f\u7f8e\u5fb7\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5bfc\u5411\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b\u4f46\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u5411\u865a\u5047\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weick\u523b\u610f\u53cd\u8f6c\u4e86\u5bf9\u6781\u7b80\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u60c5\u611f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6211\u4eec\u6c42\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5fc3\u5b89\uff0c\u4f46Weick\u8bf4\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u539f\u5219\u7684\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u8ba9\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4f60\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e0d\u591f\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9057\u6f0f\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aPeople who try to generate explanations that have generality and accuracy will probably enlarge questions rather than try to shrink them. Several of Steinbeck&#8217;s (1941) attempts at speculative metaphysics illustrate this strategy. For example, the observation that prehistoric animals had the greatest amount of armor just before they became extinct becomes enlarged into a set of speculations about the equivalent armor in human societies and the question of whether that human armor has developed to a point where it too is at its maximum, hinting at extinction. This line of questioning exemplifies two o&#8217;clock research because it is grounded in concrete observations (the presence of armor prior to extinction), but the accurate observation is enlarged and generalized to other species.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bd5\u56fe\u5efa\u6784\u517c\u5177\u666e\u9002\u6027\u4e0e\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8bd5\u56fe\u7f29\u5c0f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u65af\u5766\u8d1d\u514b\u5728\u601d\u8fa8\u5f62\u800c\u4e0a\u5b66\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u4fbf\u8be0\u91ca\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u53f2\u524d\u52a8\u7269\u5728\u706d\u7edd\u524d\u62e5\u6709\u6700\u539a\u91cd\u7684\u88c5\u7532\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u5bdf\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u4e3a\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u63a8\u6d4b\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684&#8221;\u88c5\u7532&#8221;\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u4eba\u7c7b&#8221;\u88c5\u7532&#8221;\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u6781\u81f4\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e5f\u6697\u793a\u7740\u706d\u7edd\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e00\u63d0\u95ee\u8def\u5f84\u662f\u53ef\u505a\u6977\u6a21\u7684\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u690d\u6839\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u89c2\u5bdf\uff08\u706d\u7edd\u524d\u7684\u88c5\u7532\u5b58\u5728\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u5e76\u63a8\u5e7f\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u7269\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u8bb2\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u5148\u8bb2\u4e86\u5728\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u539f\u5219\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u727a\u7272\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u3001\u4e14\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u5219\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u8bf4\u5bb6\u65af\u5766\u8d1d\u514b\u6709\u5173\u53f2\u524d\u52a8\u7269\u706d\u7edd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weick\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u88c5\u7532\u4e0e\u706d\u7edd\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u88c5\u7532\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9690\u55bb\u5462\uff1f\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7b49\u521a\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u770b\u6210\u88c5\u7532\uff1f\u5728\u4e2a\u4eba\u5fc3\u7406\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5426\u8ba4\u3001\u6295\u5c04\u3001\u5408\u7406\u5316\u7b49\u9632\u5fa1\u673a\u5236\u7b97\u4e0d\u7b97\u662f\u88c5\u7532\uff1f\u88c5\u7532\u662f\u9002\u5e94\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5316\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u5b83\u66fe\u7ecf\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e86\u751f\u547d\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u675f\u7f1a\uff0c\u963b\u788d\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u524d\u9762\u8bb2\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u4e0e\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u76f8\u547c\u5e94\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weick\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u653e\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u975e\u7f29\u5c0f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u6216\u5de5\u7a0b\u6280\u672f\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u901a\u8fc7\u63a7\u5236\u53d8\u91cf\u3001\u9650\u5b9a\u8fb9\u805a\u96c6\u5047\u8bbe\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u7f29\u5c0f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff08\u5bf9\u5e94\u516d\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u653e\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6cd5\u5b50\uff0c\u8b6c\u5982\u6269\u5c55\u8054\u60f3\u3001\u8de8\u57df\u7c7b\u6bd4\u3001\u5f62\u800c\u4e0a\u63a8\u6d4b\u7b49\uff0c\u6765\u83b7\u5f97\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u666e\u9002\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u4e24\u70b9\u949f\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u79d8\u8bc0\u662f\u201d\u653e\u5927\u95ee\u9898&#8221;\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u89c2\u5bdf\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u57df\u7c7b\u6bd4\u548c\u5f62\u800c\u4e0a\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c06\u95ee\u9898\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u5177\u666e\u9002\u6027\u7684\u5c42\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aSix o&#8217;clock inquiry is illustrated by recent arguments of noted investigators such as Cronbach (1975) and Campbell (1975) that case studies are better tools of inquiry than they first imagined. Cronbach describes &#8220;interpretation in context&#8221; and suggests that journalists (Behrens 1977) and playwrights may serve as more accurate models of what psychologists can realistically do than can physical scientists. Because many psychological findings are unstable over time, Cronbach concludes that we should try harder to make our interpretations specific to situations. This suggestion renders generality of secondary importance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u516d\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u63a2\u7a76\u53ef\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bba\u8ff0\u6765\u4f8b\u8bc1\uff1a\u8457\u540d\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5982\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u548c\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u8fd1\u671f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u6bd4\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u521d\u6240\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u4e3a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u63a2\u7a76\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86&#8221;\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u8be0\u91ca&#8221;\uff0c\u5e76\u6697\u793a\u8bb0\u8005\u548c\u5267\u4f5c\u5bb6\u6216\u8bb8\u6bd4\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u66f4\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u5b9e\u9645\u6240\u80fd\u505a\u4e4b\u4e8b\u7684\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u5e76\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u66f4\u52a0\u52aa\u529b\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8be0\u91ca\u9488\u5bf9\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u5883\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5efa\u8bae\u4f7f\u666e\u904d\u6027\u6ca6\u4e3a\u6b21\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u5f00\u59cb\uff0cWeick\u5f00\u59cb\u8bba\u8ff0\u516d\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u9762\u6709\u4e2a\u80cc\u666f\u662f\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u548c\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u90fd\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e0e\u8bc4\u4f30\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5927\u5e08\uff0c\u4ece1975\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u4ece\u8ffd\u6c42\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e13\u9879\u60c5\u5883\u8bdd\u8be0\u91ca\uff0c\u800c\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u5219\u4ece\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e3a\u738b\u8f6c\u5411\u5bf9\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e24\u4f4d\u5927\u5e08\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u8bf4\u660e\u4ee5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u516d\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u5411\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u8ffd\u6c42\u666e\u904d\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u5e94\u5f53\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e0d\u540c\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7cbe\u534e\u5e94\u5f53\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u6587\u5316\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u6027\u4e0e\u7b80\u6d01\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u666e\u9002\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0cWeick\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u7684\u5f15\u7528\uff0c\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u6587\u5b66\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\uff08\u5c0f\u8bf4\u3001\u620f\u5267\u53ca\u65b0\u95fb\uff09\u7b49\u6bd4\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u601d\u7ef4\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u5e76\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\u81f4\u547d\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u8fd8\u7834\u788e\u4e86\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u60f3\u8981\u8ffd\u6c42\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u90a3\u79cd\u666e\u9002\u6027\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u53d1\u73b0\u4f1a\u56e0\u8de8\u65f6\u4ee3\u800c\u8fc7\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f15\u60c5\u5883\u4e0d\u540c\u800c\u5931\u6548\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd9\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u4e24\u70b9\u542f\u53d1\u9996\u5148\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff1a\u65e2\u8981\u5177\u6709\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u7269\u201d\uff08\u6d41\u7a0b\u3001\u6280\u672f\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\uff09\u7b49\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u5177\u6709\u6587\u5b66\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u4eba\u201d\uff08\u52a8\u673a\u3001\u6587\u5316\u3001\u6743\u529b\uff09\u7b49\u3002\u514b\u6717\u5df4\u8d6b\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff1a\u5f53\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u201d\u4eba&#8221;\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u91c7\u75286\u70b9\u949f\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1b\u5f53\u7814\u7a76&#8221;\u7269&#8221;\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u91c7\u7528\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u4eba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8ff7\u4fe1\u897f\u65b9\u7ba1\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5047\u88c5\u81ea\u5df1\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u662f\u666e\u904d\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u88ab\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u4e3a\u662f\u672c\u571f\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u662f\u6240\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u4eba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u90fd\u662f\u672c\u571f\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u9009\u81ea\u5361\u5c14\u00b7E\u00b7\u97e6\u514b\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\uff08\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7248\uff09\u300b\u76f8\u5173\u7ae0\u8282\uff0c\u539f\u4e66\u4e3a\uff1a<em>The Social Psychology of Organizing (Second Edition)<\/em>\uff0cKarl E. Weick \uff0cADDISON-WESLEY PUBLISHING COMPANY\uff0c1979\u3002\u4e3a\u9605\u8bfb\u53ca\u6392\u7248\u4fbf\u5229\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\u4e2d\u5220\u53bb\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u6ce8\u91ca\uff0c\u6709\u9700\u8981\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\u539f\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u672c\u7b14\u8bb0\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u7814\u8bfb\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5bf9\u539f\u6587\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ffb\u8bd1\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u89e3\u8bfb\u3001\u903b\u8f91\u68b3\u7406\u3001\u601d\u8003\u8bc4\u8bba\u53ca\u77e5\u8bc6\u62d3\u5c55\u7b49\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0\u4ec5\u4ee3\u8868\u4e2a\u4eba\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u5b66\u672f\u4ea4\u6d41\u53ca\u514d\u8d39\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u65e0\u4efb\u4f55\u5546\u4e1a\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 032 \u539f\u6587\uff1aIf one intentionally sets out  &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1430\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201c\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 033\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1430"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1430"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1430\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1431,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1430\/revisions\/1431"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}