{"id":1319,"date":"2026-05-25T14:09:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T06:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1319"},"modified":"2026-05-25T14:09:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T06:09:36","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0-011","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1319","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 011"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzI5MjIxMzQxMA==&amp;mid=2247492910&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=5df5413350a1382d697131c2e4f3c03e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 010<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CALLAWAY AND OPENNESS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5361\u62c9\u5a01\u4e0e\u5f00\u653e\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aPlans are advertisements in the sense that they often are used to attract investors to the firm. Plans show the organization at its best; they are documents designed to persuade, but again, they are more valuable externally than internally. One earmark of a plan that advertises is that it lacks relevant information about the organization. &#8220;Real&#8221; plans, those that bind the energies and time of people, contain a maximum of relevant information; plans that pass as advertisements are deficient on information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u89c4\u5212\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u5e7f\u544a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5e38\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u5438\u5f15\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u6ce8\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6700\u7f8e\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u9762\uff1b\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u65e8\u5728\u8bf4\u670d\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5176\u5916\u90e8\u4ef7\u503c\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u5185\u90e8\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u2018\u5e7f\u544a\u5f0f\u89c4\u5212\u2019\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u663e\u8457\u7279\u5f81\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5173\u4e8e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u7ea6\u675f\u4eba\u4eec\u7cbe\u529b\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u2018\u771f\u5b9e\u2019\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4e14\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\uff1b\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u5e7f\u544a\u515c\u552e\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u4e0a\u5219\u662f\u532e\u4e4f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-24-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-24-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-24-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-24-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-24.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u56fe\u7247\u7531AI\u751f\u6210<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u5224\u522b\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u201c\u5e7f\u544a\u578b\u89c4\u5212\u201d\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u578b\u89c4\u5212\u201d\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5916\u90e8\u8bf4\u670d vs. \u5185\u90e8\u7ed1\u5b9a\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e7f\u544a\u578b\u89c4\u5212\uff1a\u5b83\u7684\u53d7\u4f17\u662f\u201c\u5c40\u5916\u4eba\u201d\uff08\u5982\u80a1\u6c11\u3001\u4e0a\u7ea7\u3001\u516c\u4f17\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u670d\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u5fc5\u987b\u7b80\u6d01\u3001\u5b8f\u5927\u4e14\u5145\u6ee1\u8bf1\u60d1\u529b\u3002\u771f\u5b9e\u578b\u89c4\u5212\uff1a\u5b83\u7684\u53d7\u4f17\u662f\u201c\u5c40\u5185\u4eba\u201d\u3002Weick\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u91cd\u7684\u8bcd\u2014\u2014\u201c\u7ed1\u5b9a\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\u5fc5\u987b\u544a\u8bc9\u5458\u5de5\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u201d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1a\u6211\u505a\u4e86A\uff0cB\u624d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5305\u542b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c\u5b83\u624d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u6307\u6325\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u201d\u6096\u8bba\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d8a\u662f\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5929\u82b1\u4e71\u5760\u3001\u8f9e\u4ee4\u4f18\u7f8e\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff08\u5e7f\u544a\uff09\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u8d8a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u771f\u5b9e\u75db\u70b9\u548c\u7ec6\u8282\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f3a\u5931\u662f\u6709\u610f\u4e3a\u4e4b\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u592a\u591a\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u6b67\u4e49\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u201c\u5e7f\u544a\u201d\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542f\u793a\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\u53ea\u6709\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u613f\u666f\u3001\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u4e86\u9519\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u529e\u201d\u3001\u201c\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u914d\u201d\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6839\u636eWeick\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u5e7f\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u62ff\u7740\u4e00\u4efd\u5bf9\u5916\u7684\u201c\u5e7f\u544a\u201d\uff0c\u53bb\u6307\u5bfc\u5185\u90e8\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u201c\u7ed1\u5b9a\u201d\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5458\u5de5\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u753b\u518c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aPlans are games because they often are used to test how serious people are about the programs they advocate. If departments want programs badly enough, then they should be willing to spend the effort necessary to justify the program and to embed it in a plan. &#8220;If an administrator wishes to avoid saying &#8216;yes&#8217; to everything, but has no basis for saying &#8216;no&#8217; to anything, he tests the commitment of the department by asking for a plan&#8221; (Cohen and March 1974, p. 115).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u89c4\u5212\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5e38\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u5021\u5bfc\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u8ba4\u771f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5404\u90e8\u95e8\u771f\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u6e34\u671b\u67d0\u4e9b\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u7406\u5e94\u613f\u610f\u6295\u5165\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u7cbe\u529b\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u5d4c\u5165\u4e00\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u2019\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u540d\u884c\u653f\u4e3b\u7ba1\u65e2\u4e0d\u60f3\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u8bf7\u6c42\u90fd\u8bf4\u201c\u884c\u201d\uff0c\u53c8\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u7531\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u8bf7\u6c42\u8bf4\u201c\u4e0d\u201d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u8981\u6c42\u5bf9\u65b9\u63d0\u4ea4\u4e00\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u6765\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8be5\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6295\u5165\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u2019\u201d\uff08\u79d1\u6069\u548c\u9a6c\u59471974\uff0c\u7b2c 115\u9875\uff09<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u9a6c\u5947\u7684\u201c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u201d\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u9610\u91ca\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u89c4\u5212\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u626e\u6f14\u7740\u201c\u7b5b\u9009\u5668\u201d\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u8bda\u610f\u6d4b\u8bd5\u201d\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5927\u578b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d44\u6e90\u603b\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u90e8\u95e8\u90fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u51fa\u5404\u79cd\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u53ea\u662f\u968f\u53e3\u8981\u94b1\u3002\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u5199\u89c4\u5212\u201d\u5c31\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u51c6\u5165\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8fde\u4e00\u4efd\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u90fd\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u82b1\u7cbe\u529b\u53bb\u5199\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4f60\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u591f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u201c\u7f13\u5175\u4e4b\u8ba1\u201d\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u516c\u5171\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u975e\u5e38\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u201c\u8f6f\u62d2\u7edd\u201d\u827a\u672f\u3002\u5f53\u4e0a\u7ea7\u4e0d\u60f3\u76f4\u63a5\u62d2\u7edd\u4e0b\u7ea7\u3001\u6015\u4f24\u548c\u6c14\u6216\u663e\u5f97\u4e0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u8bf7\u7ed9\u6211\u51fa\u4e00\u4efd\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5728\u5229\u7528\u5b98\u50da\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u7e41\u7410\u6765\u5c4f\u853d\u90a3\u4e9b\u7531\u4e8e\u4e00\u65f6\u51b2\u52a8\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u7ed1\u5b9a\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u6295\u5165\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8981\u6c42\u5236\u5b9a\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u5f3a\u8feb\u6210\u5458\u628a\u6563\u4e71\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u56fa\u5316\u4e3a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u592a\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u8c03\u8282\u201d\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u81ea\u7136\u5c31\u4f1a\u88ab\u6dd8\u6c70\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u201c\u505a\u4e8b\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8010\u529b\u3001\u51b3\u5fc3\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aFinally, plans become excusesfor interaction in the sense that they induce conversations among diverse populations about projects that may have been low-priority items. The interaction may yield immediate positive results, but such outcomes are usually incidental. Much of the power of planning is explained by the people that it puts into contact and the information that these people exchange about current circumstances. When people meet to plan for contingencies five years away, contingencies that seldom materialize, they may modify one another&#8217;s ideas about what should be done today. But that is about all that can be accomplished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u6210\u4e86\u2018\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u501f\u53e3\u2019\u3002\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u8bf1\u53d1\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7fa4\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u539f\u672c\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u5c55\u5f00\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e92\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u6b64\u7c7b\u7ed3\u679c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5076\u7136\u7684\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6e90\u4e8e\u5b83\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u539f\u672c\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f80\u6765\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u63a5\u89e6\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ea4\u6362\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u73b0\u72b6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u805a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u4e3a\u4e94\u5e74\u540e\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u610f\u5916\u60c5\u51b5\u5236\u5b9a\u89c4\u5212\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u4fee\u6b63\u5bf9\u65b9\u5173\u4e8e\u2018\u4eca\u5929\u8be5\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u2019\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5c31\u662f\u89c4\u5212\u6240\u80fd\u6210\u5c31\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4e86\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u9053\u7834\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u771f\u76f8\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u56e2\u961f\u53c2\u4e0e\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u201c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\u8fdc\u6bd4\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u501f\u53e3\u201d\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u79d1\u5c42\u5236\u68ee\u4e25\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u5982\u603b\u90e8\u5927\u697c\uff09\u91cc\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u4eba\u5e73\u65f6\u5f88\u96be\u5750\u5230\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u800c\u201c\u5236\u5b9a\u4e94\u5e74\u89c4\u5212\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u5f53\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u8054\u52a8\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u201d\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u6b6a\u6253\u6b63\u7740\u201d\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u8ba8\u8bba\u90a3\u4e2a\u9065\u4e0d\u53ef\u53ca\u7684\u201c\u4e94\u5e74\u613f\u666f\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u4ea4\u6362\u7684\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u5f53\u4e0b\u73b0\u72b6\u201d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u78c1\u573a\uff0c\u628a\u5927\u5bb6\u5438\u5f15\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5927\u5bb6\u5634\u4e0a\u804a\u7684\u662f\u201c\u672a\u6765\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u662f\u201c\u4eca\u5929\u201d\u7684\u8bef\u89e3\u548c\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u7684\u89e3\u6784\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e94\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u5f88\u5c11\u80fd\u6210\u771f\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u6ca1\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u201c\u4fee\u6b63\u4e86\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u201d\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5bf9\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u4f7f\u547d\u5c31\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u522b\u628a\u89c4\u5212\u62a5\u544a\u5f53\u6210\u5723\u7ecf\uff0c\u8981\u628a\u5b83\u5f53\u6210\u4e00\u6b21\u5951\u673a\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5951\u673a\u8bf7\u90a3\u4e9b\u672c\u4e0d\u8bf4\u8bdd\u7684\u4eba\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u89c4\u5212\u5bf9\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aPlans are a pretext under which several valuable activities take place in organizations, but one of those activities is not forecasting. As Ambrose Bierce said, to plan is to &#8220;bother about the best method of accomplishing an accidental result&#8221; (1946, p. 327).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u89c4\u5212\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u501f\u53e3\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u540d\u4e49\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u5f97\u4ee5\u5f00\u5c55\u82e5\u5e72\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u7edd\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u2018\u9884\u6d4b\u2019\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5b89\u5e03\u7f57\u65af\u00b7\u6bd4\u5c14\u65af\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u2018\u4e3a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5076\u7136\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u8d39\u5c3d\u5fc3\u673a\u2019\u3002\uff081946\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c327\u9875\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u5f15\u7528\u8fd9\u53e5\u6bd2\u820c\u7684\u683c\u8a00\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f7b\u5e95\u6253\u7834\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u89c4\u5212\u6765\u201c\u638c\u63a7\u672a\u6765\u201d\u7684\u5e7b\u60f3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u501f\u53e3\u201d\u4e0e\u201c\u5b9e\u8d28\u201d\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u4ef7\u503c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u526f\u4ea7\u54c1\u2014\u2014\u6c9f\u901a\u3001\u535a\u5f08\u3001\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u7b26\u53f7\u5c55\u793a\u3002\u5b83\u5c31\u50cf\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5bb9\u5668\u201d\uff0c\u91cc\u9762\u88c5\u6ee1\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u7528\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4f46\u5bb9\u5668\u4e0a\u8d34\u7684\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u201d\u6807\u7b7e\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u865a\u5047\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u627f\u8ba4\u201c\u5076\u7136\u6027\u201d\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u547c\u5e94\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u6761\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u591a\u79cd\u529b\u91cf\u78b0\u649e\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u5076\u7136\u201d\u3002Weick\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u80fd\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u5224\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u5076\u7136\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u54cd\u5e94\u5076\u7136\u7684\u8054\u52a8\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u89e3\u653e\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u201c\u89c4\u5212\u4e0d\u80fd\u638c\u63a7\u672a\u6765\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u4ece\u201c\u5fc5\u987b\u7b97\u51c6\u201d\u7684\u6c89\u91cd\u7126\u8651\u4e2d\u89e3\u8131\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u91cd\u5fc3\u5c06\u4ece\u201c\u5b8c\u5584\u6587\u6863\u201d\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u589e\u5f3a\u6210\u5458\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u5347\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5e94\u5bf9\u7a81\u53d1\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u89c4\u5212\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u201d\u7684\u4fee\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff08\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b66\u4e60\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 010 CALLAWAY AND OPENNESS \u5361\u62c9\u5a01\u4e0e\u5f00\u653e\u6027 \u539f\u6587\uff1a &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1319\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201c\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 011\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1321,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1319\/revisions\/1321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}