{"id":1313,"date":"2026-05-25T11:58:42","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T03:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1313"},"modified":"2026-05-25T11:58:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T03:58:42","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%a0%e7%ac%94%e8%ae%b0-010","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1313","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 010"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzI5MjIxMzQxMA==&amp;mid=2247492899&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=c924cae9cef68bf1fef6db2e08be1ac5&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 009<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>HOCKEY FOG AND CAUSAL CHAINS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u51b0\u7403\u5927\u96fe\u4e0e\u56e0\u679c\u94fe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aThe fog-clouded Stanley Cup playoffs in Buffalo are an excellent illustration of the point that causal chains within organizations are lengthy as well as dense (Reynolds 1974). It seems hard to imagine that expanding the number of teams would result in a controversial playoff due to fog. Nevertheless, there is a kind of inevitability once some of these small beginnings of expansion are set in motion. As you sign more teams, it takes a longer season for all teams to play all other teams; the playoffs also last longer. This means that hockey, normally a cold-weather sport, now spills over into the spring for the playoffs and into the early fall for exhibition games. Both of these encroachments on warmer seasons raise the odds that hot air will mix with cold air coming from the ice and that the mixture will form clouds of vapor on the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u5e03\u6cd5\u7f57\u90a3\u573a\u5927\u96fe\u5f25\u6f2b\u7684\u65af\u5766\u5229\u676f\u51b3\u8d5b\uff0c\u6781\u597d\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u6761\u65e2\u6f2b\u957f\u53c8\u5bc6\u96c6\uff08\u96f7\u8bfa\u51791974\uff09\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u96be\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7403\u961f\u6570\u91cf\u7adf\u7136\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u573a\u56e0\u5927\u96fe\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u51b3\u8d5b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\u88ab\u64ad\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u79cd\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u4fbf\u968f\u4e4b\u542f\u52a8\u3002\u968f\u7740\u7b7e\u7ea6\u7403\u961f\u7684\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7403\u961f\u4e92\u76f8\u5bf9\u5792\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8d5b\u5b63\u65f6\u95f4\u5c31\u4f1a\u62c9\u957f\uff0c\u5b63\u540e\u8d5b\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u968f\u4e4b\u53d8\u4e45\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u51b0\u7403\u8fd9\u9879\u901a\u5e38\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5bd2\u51b7\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5176\u5b63\u540e\u8d5b\u73b0\u5728\u6ea2\u51fa\u5230\u4e86\u6625\u5b63\uff0c\u800c\u5b63\u524d\u8d5b\u5219\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u521d\u79cb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5bf9\u6e29\u6696\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u8695\u98df\uff0c\u90fd\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u70ed\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e0e\u51b0\u9762\u51b7\u7a7a\u6c14\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u51e0\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6df7\u5408\u7269\u6700\u7ec8\u5728\u51b0\u9762\u4e0a\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e91\u96fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-23-1024x576.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-23-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-23-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-23-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-23.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">\u56fe\u7247\u7531AI\u751f\u6210<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7ebf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5c40\u9650\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5728\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u5982\u6269\u5145\u7403\u961f\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u773c\u524d\u7684\u5229\u76ca\uff08\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u95e8\u7968\u3001\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u679c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5c42\u5c42\u4f20\u9012\u7684\uff1a\u6269\u5145\u7403\u961f\u2192\u8d5b\u7a0b\u62c9\u957f\u2192\u6bd4\u8d5b\u8fdb\u5165\u70ed\u5929\u2192 \u7269\u7406\u6e29\u5dee \u2192\u51b0\u573a\u8d77\u96fe\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u201c\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u7b56\u201d\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u201c\u7269\u7406\u73b0\u8c61\u201d\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7ec4\u7ec7\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u73af\u5883\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8054\u76df\u9ad8\u5c42\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7eb3\u95f7\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u96fe\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u5927\u96fe\u6b63\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4eb2\u624b\u201c\u5236\u9020\u201d\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u9002\u5e94\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u201c\u7f16\u7ec7\u201d\u51fa\u5b83\u6700\u7ec8\u5fc5\u987b\u7f6e\u8eab\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u4f60\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u90fd\u5728\u4e3a\u660e\u5929\u57cb\u4e0b\u67d0\u79cd\u201c\u5fc5\u7136\u6027\u201d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6f2b\u957f\u4e14\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u88ab\u81ea\u5df1\u4eb2\u624b\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u5927\u96fe\u201d\u6240\u56f0\u6270\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aThe presence of fog is even self-defeating for players because it lessens the quality of play:What made last night&#8217;s action even more bizarre was the spectacle of nearly exhausted players being asked to skate around the rink to stir up air currents and make the fog rise, with the game tied 4-4, and at its tensest in the sudden death&#8230;&#8221;It was brutal out there,&#8221; said Jerry Korab, the big Buffalo defenseman. &#8220;Not only did I lose at least 10 pounds, but I couldn&#8217;t breathe. The fog smelled like gas or ammonia and got in my eyes, too&#8221; (Keese 1975).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u5927\u96fe\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u7403\u5458\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u81ea\u6211\u632b\u8d25\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u7ade\u6280\u8d28\u91cf\uff1a\u6628\u665a\u6700\u79bb\u5947\u7684\u666f\u8c61\u83ab\u8fc7\u4e8e\uff0c\u5728\u6bd4\u8d5b\u6218\u62104-4\u5e73\u3001\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u7a81\u7136\u6b7b\u4ea1\u52a0\u65f6\u8d5b\u6700\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u51e0\u4e4e\u7cbe\u75b2\u529b\u7aed\u7684\u7403\u5458\u4eec\u7adf\u7136\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u7ed5\u7740\u51b0\u573a\u5feb\u901f\u6ed1\u884c\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ee5\u6b64\u6405\u52a8\u7a7a\u6c14\u6d41\u8ba9\u6d53\u96fe\u5347\u6563\u2026\u2026\u2018\u5728\u90a3\u513f\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u6298\u78e8\uff0c\u2019\u5e03\u6cd5\u7f57\u961f\u7684\u58ee\u6c49\u540e\u536b\u6770\u91cc\u00b7\u79d1\u62c9\u5e03\u8bf4\u9053\uff0c\u2018\u6211\u4e0d\u6b62\u6389\u4e86\u81f3\u5c1110\u78c5\u4f53\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5598\u4e0d\u4e0a\u6c14\u3002\u90a3\u96fe\u95fb\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u7164\u6c14\u6216\u6c28\u6c14\u5473\uff0c\u8fd8\u4e00\u76f4\u5f80\u6211\u773c\u91cc\u94bb\u3002\u2019\u201d\uff08\u57fa\u65af 1975\uff09<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6781\u5177\u753b\u9762\u611f\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u6df1\u601d\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8352\u8bde\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u672c\u7403\u5458\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5e8f\u5217\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u201c\u62a2\u7403-\u4f20\u7403-\u5c04\u95e8\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5927\u96fe\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u7ed5\u573a\u6ed1\u884c\u4ee5\u9a71\u6563\u96fe\u6c14\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5f53\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u6781\u5ea6\u6076\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6210\u5458\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u88ab\u8feb\u4ece\u4e8b\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0e\u539f\u59cb\u76ee\u6807\uff08\u8d62\u7403\uff09\u5b8c\u5168\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u8352\u8bde\u6d3b\u52a8\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8fd0\u8f6c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u81ea\u6211\u632b\u8d25\u7684\u9876\u70b9\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u8054\u76df\uff09\u4e3a\u4e86\u5229\u6da6\u5ef6\u957f\u8d5b\u5b63\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6bc1\u4e86\u8f6c\u64ad\u548c\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u8fd8\u76f4\u63a5\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u5b83\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u2014\u2014\u7403\u5458\u7684\u4f53\u80fd\u4e0e\u5065\u5eb7\u3002\u5f53\u7403\u5458\u5728\u5927\u96fe\u4e2d\u611f\u5230\u7a92\u606f\u3001\u773c\u775b\u53d7\u635f\u65f6\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u964d\u5230\u4e86\u51b0\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u62b5\u6297\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u6c42\u7cbe\u75b2\u529b\u7aed\u7684\u7403\u5458\u53bb\u201c\u4eba\u5de5\u9a71\u96fe\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u5176\u4f4e\u6548\u4e14\u8fd1\u4e4e\u7edd\u671b\u7684\u8865\u6551\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff08\u4ece\u8001\u677f\u5230\u5458\u5de5\/\u7403\u5458\uff09\u90fd\u9677\u5165\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u5236\u9020\u7684\u9ebb\u70e6\u800c\u8017\u5c3d\u4f53\u529b\u201d\u7684\u6b7b\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aIn analyzing organizations we will want to examine the density of causal linkages and their circular patterns, but we will also want to examine the length of these chains of interdependence. Immediate activities can have remote consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u5728\u5206\u6790\u7ec4\u7ec7\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u53ca\u5176\u5faa\u73af\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u8fd9\u4e9b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u94fe\u6761\u7684\u957f\u5ea6\u3002\u773c\u4e0b\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u6781\u5176\u6df1\u8fdc\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>Weick\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u3001\u5faa\u73af\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u94fe\u6761\u957f\u5ea6\u53ca\u8fdc\u671f\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u540e\u6587\u5c55\u5f00\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u51e0\u4e2a\u70b9\u56de\u987e\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u5404\u8981\u7d20\u4e4b\u95f4\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5bc6\u5bc6\u9ebb\u9ebb\u5730\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u89e3\u6790\uff1a\u5728\u6307\u6325\u5bb6\u548c\u4e50\u624b\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea180\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u7ebd\u5e26\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9ad8\u5bc6\u5ea6\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6ce2\u53ca\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5faa\u73af\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u7684A\u2192B\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u9988\u73afA\u2192B\u2192A\u3002\u89e3\u6790\uff1a\u6b63\u5982\u91cd\u578b\u519c\u673a\u538b\u5b9e\u571f\u58e4\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7701\u529b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u56e0\uff09\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u571f\u58e4\u53d8\u786c\uff08\u679c\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u786c\u5316\u7684\u571f\u58e4\u53c8\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f60\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u91cd\u7684\u673a\u68b0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u201d\u7684\u95ed\u73af\u624d\u662f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u884c\u4e3a\u96be\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u8d56\u94fe\u6761\u7684\u957f\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u4f1a\u8de8\u8d8a\u7a7a\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u957f\u8ddd\u79bb\u4f20\u9012\u3002\u89e3\u6790\uff1a\u8054\u76df\u589e\u52a0\u7403\u961f\u6570\u91cf\uff08\u773c\u524d\u6d3b\u52a8\uff09\u770b\u4f3c\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u5546\u4e1a\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u8fc7\u957f\u957f\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u6761\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u7adf\u7136\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u7684\u603b\u51b3\u8d5b\u4e0a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u201c\u5927\u96fe\u201d\uff08\u8fdc\u671f\u540e\u679c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8fdc\u671f\u540e\u679c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u201c\u773c\u524d\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u201c\u5ef6\u65f6\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u201d\u3002\u89e3\u6790\uff1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5316\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5904\u7406\u5f53\u4e0b\u7684\u9ebb\u70e6\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4f60\u6b64\u523b\u4e3a\u4e86\u201c\u51cf\u5c11\u6b67\u4e49\u201d\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u4e2a\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u4f60\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4f60\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u770b\u5c40\u90e8\u548c\u773c\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9886\u4f1a\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u8ffd\u8e2a\u90a3\u4e9b\u6f2b\u957f\u3001\u5bc6\u96c6\u4e14\u5faa\u73af\u5f80\u590d\u7684\u9690\u5f62\u94fe\u6761\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aThe ludicrous playoff might also look like a classic case of poor planning.That may be. But it&#8217;s not obvious that even more planning is the answer: plans have been overrated as a crucial component for accomplishment of effective actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u8fd9\u573a\u6ed1\u7a3d\u7684\u5b63\u540e\u8d5b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e5f\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u2018\u89c4\u5212\u4e0d\u529b\u2019\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u53ef\u80fd\u786e\u5b9e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4fbf\u589e\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u5c31\u662f\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u9053\uff1a\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u90fd\u8fc7\u9ad8\u5730\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u2018\u89c4\u5212\u2019\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6709\u6548\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u5173\u952e\u8981\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><br>Weick\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u884c\u52a8\u4f18\u4e8e\u89c4\u5212\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff1a<\/strong>\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u603b\u89c9\u5f97\u5982\u679c\u8ba1\u5212\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u201c\u51b0\u7403\u5927\u96fe\u201d\u6216\u201c\u798f\u7279\u9879\u76ee\u5931\u8d25\u201d\u3002\u4f46Weick\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u6f2b\u957f\u4e14\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u7406\u6027\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u6709\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8ba1\u5212\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u201c\u4e8b\u540e\u627e\u8865\u201d\uff1a<\/strong>Weick\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8ba1\u5212\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u8d77\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u5bfc\u822a\u4eea\u201d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u201d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u7ed9\u6210\u5458\u4e00\u79cd\u865a\u5047\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u611f\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u6562\u4e8e\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u884c\u52a8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\uff08\u81ea\u6211\u8c03\u8282\u56de\u8def\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u884c\u52a8\u521b\u9020\u610f\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e0e\u5176\u5728\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u91cc\u63a8\u6f14\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff08\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u535a\u5c3c\u5c3c\u6096\u8bba\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u76f4\u63a5\u8fdb\u5165\u73af\u5883\u53bb\u201c\u5165\u6cd5\u201d\uff08Enact\uff09\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5927\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u7403\u5458\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u8d5b\u524d\u7684\u6218\u672f\u89c4\u5212\u90fd\u5931\u6548\u4e86\uff0c\u552f\u6709\u5728\u96fe\u4e2d\u5373\u5174\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u624d\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1aWeick\u60f3\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u9ad8\u6548\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u662f\u6e90\u4e8e\u201c\u4e25\u5bc6\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6e90\u4e8e\u6210\u5458\u5728\u6df7\u4e71\u4e2d\u7075\u6d3b\u54cd\u5e94\u548c\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u6587\uff1aPlans are important in organizations, but not for the reasons people think. Cohen and March (1974) argue that plans are symbols, advertisements, games, and excuses for interactions. They are symbols in the sense that when an organization does not know how it is doing or knows that it is failing, it can signal a different message to observers. If the organization does not have a compact car in its line, it can announce plans to have one. On the basis of this announcement the firm may be valued more highly than an organization that makes no such announcement. It is less crucial that the organization is actually planning to make the car than that all concerned imagine this to be the case. It is in this sense that plans are symbols and that they negotiate a portion of the reality that then comes back and rearranges the organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\u53c2\u8003\u8bd1\u6587\uff1a\u89c4\u5212\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e2d\u56fa\u7136\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u51fa\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u60f3\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u7406\u7531\u3002\u79d1\u6069\u548c\u9a6c\u5947\uff081974\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u662f\u7b26\u53f7\u3001\u5e7f\u544a\u3001\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u501f\u53e3\u3002\u8bf4\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u7b26\u53f7\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u8868\u73b0\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u660e\u77e5\u81ea\u5df1\u6b63\u5728\u5931\u8d25\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u53d1\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ebf\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u7d27\u51d1\u578b\u8f7f\u8f66\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ba3\u5e03\u63a8\u51fa\u8be5\u8f66\u578b\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u4ec5\u51ed\u8fd9\u4e00\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u58f0\u660e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u3002\u7ec4\u7ec7\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6253\u7b97\u9020\u8fd9\u8f86\u8f66\u5e76\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u65b9\u90fd\u2018\u60f3\u8c61\u2019\u5b83\u4f1a\u9020\u8fd9\u8f86\u8f66\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b26\u53f7\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u534f\u5546\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u2018\u73b0\u5b9e\u2019\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u73b0\u5b9e\u968f\u540e\u4f1a\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u548c\u5851\u9020\u6574\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\ud83d\udccc \u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weick\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7406\u8bba\u5927\u5e08\u79d1\u6069\u548c\u9a6c\u5947\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u201c\u89c4\u5212\u201d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u5c5e\u6027\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u7b26\u53f7\u201d\u7684\u89c4\u5212\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u529f\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u5bfc\u822a\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u201c\u8868\u6f14\u201d\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u5916\u754c\uff08\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u516c\u4f17\uff09\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4f9d\u7136\u5728\u638c\u63a7\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u53f7\u80fd\u7a33\u4f4f\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5185\u90e8\u4f9d\u7136\u4e00\u56e2\u4e71\u9ebb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201c\u534f\u5546\u5efa\u6784\u201d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u70b9\u3002\u5f53\u516c\u53f8\u5ba3\u5e03\u9020\u5c0f\u8f66\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u8f66\u8fd8\u6ca1\u9020\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u754c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5916\u754c\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u4f1a\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u8feb\u4f7f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4eba\u8c03\u6574\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u89c4\u5212\u5148\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u865a\u5047\u201d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u865a\u5047\u73b0\u5b9e\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u793e\u4f1a\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5f3a\u884c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d8\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u610f\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>\u2018\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u805a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5f00\u4f1a\u505a\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e2a\u6587\u6863\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ba9\u4e0d\u540c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8054\u52a8\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u5f7c\u6b64\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u8ba1\u5212\u4e66\u9a97\u4e86\u3002\u89c4\u5212\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u5236\u9020\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u672a\u6765\u201d\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8ba9\u5927\u5bb6\u613f\u610f\u7ee7\u7eed\u914d\u5408\u6f14\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff08\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b66\u4e60\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u63a5\u4e0a\u671f\uff1a\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 009 HOCKEY FOG AND CAUSAL CHAINS \u51b0\u7403\u5927\u96fe &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/?page_id=1313\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201c\u300a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\u5b66\u4e60\u7b14\u8bb0 010\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1313"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1313"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1315,"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1313\/revisions\/1315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mooda.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}